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Bank of China Issued Report for 2016 Economic and Financial Outlook


2015-12-31

On December 7, 2015, Bank of China issued its report for 2016 Economic and Financial Outlook (hereinafter referred to as the “report”). In this report, there is an outlook for the global and China’s economic and financial situation and the world banking industry in 2016, based on the review of 2015. Meanwhile, some hot issues are analyzed in the report.

Global Economic and Financial Outlook: Global economy struggled with lower prices in 2015. The developed economies regained some steam on a weak basis, the emerging economies slowed down with Russia and Brazil trapped in recession, while the Asia-Pacific region was relatively stable. Global financial market saw greater volatility in 2015. Currencies of the emerging markets wallowed, stock market had a rollercoaster ride, commodity prices continued to slump, and systemic financial risks were on the rise for some countries. Global economy in 2016 is expected to be lukewarm, financial risk pressure will be unabated as a result of the spillover effects of the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike and US dollar appreciation. This report sets a column analyzing the implications of the“Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement” (TPP) for the world economy, as well as the path of Fed’s rate hike and its influence.

China's Economic and Financial Outlook: In 2015, China faced multifold challenges in the stabilization of economic growth and prevention of risks. However, owing to the generally stable economic operation, China’s GDP is expected to rise by about 6.9% in 2015, and CPI is likely to increase by around 1.4%. The year of 2016, the beginning of China’s “13th Five-Year Plan”, will still face a grim economic climate, including more intricate problems and contradictions. As China's economic development stays in a critical period characterized by change of stage, structural shift, model reconstruction and risk exposing, a pattern of low growth, low inflation and high leverage will appear. It is forecasted that GDP will grow by about 6.8%, slightly slower than that in 2015; and CPI will edge up 2% or so.

Global Banking Industry Outlook: In 2016, G-SIBs will be featured by low profit growth, higher percentage of non-interest income and stronger support to the real economy. The banking industry is healthy in the US and UK, while facing significant challenges in Japan and Eurozone. In 2016, China’s listed banks will be faced with strong operation pressure with zero growth of net profits and NPL ratios falling into the range of 2%. However, structural opportunities still exist. Defending the bottom-line and seeking improvement amid stability will be the key theme. This report also looks at such special subjects as adjustment of Brazilian market strategies of major international banks, new phase of interest rate liberalization, the development of green bonds in the banking industry and regulatory changes of provision coverage ratio, etc.

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