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Bank of China Issued Report for 2018Q2 Economic and Financial Outlook


2018-04-26

On March 28, 2018, Bank of China issued its report for 2018Q2 Economic and Financial Outlook (hereinafter referred to as the “report”). In this report, there is an outlook for the global and China’s economic and financial situation and the world banking industry in Q2, based on the review of 2018Q1.

Global Economic and Financial Outlook: Since 2018, the global economy has maintained the momentum for a stable, full recovery with a rise in inflation, in spite of the greater volatility in financial markets and the looming threat of trade war. In the near future, the global economy will continue to recover and is estimated to reach an annual growth rate of about 3.4% in 2018. The global economic landscape will be reshaped by the game between major powers and policy adjustments. The United States and its Asian Pacific allies mull a joint regional infrastructure scheme as an alternative to the Belt and Road Initiative. However, that scheme faces constraints and problems making it hard to hold back the Belt and Road Initiative. The expected continuous hikes in the medium- and long-term interest rates of the United States driven by various factors may have an array of effects in the future. The battle for the European financial centre will be more intense after Brexit.

China's Economic and Financial Outlook: China saw booming demand and supply in the first quarter driven by strong external demand, fast-growing new engines and rebounding real estate and private investments, with industrial activity, consumption, investment and exports growing faster to various degrees. GDP in the first quarter is expected to grow by around 6.9%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter. CPI is estimated to rise by about 2.4%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous quarter. The second quarter will see continued transition from old growth engines to new ones, faster expansion of new engines and policy supports for consumption. Chinese economy will remain on the track of steady growth toward high-quality development. But the policy to cut overcapacities will go further. Investment can hardly maintain fast expansion and export growth may moderate. Financial de-leveraging and risk prevention will continue. The economy still faces many uncertainties. GDP is expected to grow by about 6.8% in the second quarter, and also by around 6.8% in annual terms.

Global Banking Industry Outlook: In 2018Q1, global banking industry made further progress. Specifically, China’s banking industry maintained a good momentum of steadying forward on a whole with controllable risks, while further improving the quality and efficiency of serving the real economy. Global banking industry is expected to improve further in general, yet with some potential hazards, in 2018Q2. The efforts of preventing and controlling financial risks by China’s listed banks have driven regulation and supervision to become increasingly stricter, which will in turn produce far-reaching implications upon their operation and management. The report also discusses digital currency and the evolution of Global Systematically Important Banks (G-SIBs).

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