On September 25 2025, BOC Research Institute released the Economic and Financial Outlook for 2025Q4 (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”) in Beijing. The Report reviews the economic and financial operations both globally and in China as well as the operations of the global banking industry in 2025Q3. It also provides an outlook on the economic and financial situations and the trends of the global banking industry in 2025Q4.
In terms of global economic and financial situations, the Report notes in 2025Q3, the global economic growth momentum showed signs of recovery. Aggregate demand experienced a slight rebound, while aggregate supply remained generally stable. The pace of global inflation decline slowed overall, with divergence trends intensifying. The impact of tariff policies on global trade moderated. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy turned dovish. International capital returned to emerging markets. Global USD liquidity faced pressure, the US Dollar Index fluctuated at low levels, US Treasury yields underwent wide adjustments, global stock markets generally trended upwards, and commodity price volatility increased. Looking ahead to 2025Q4, the outlook for global economic growth is mixed. Uncertainty on the demand side has increased, while the supply side remains relatively robust. Global inflation is expected to stabilize with a downward trend overall, though the US faces risks of a rebound. US tariff policies remain highly uncertain. Fiscal revenue and expenditure pressures are intensifying in some economies. The Federal Reserve may implement further interest rate cuts. Geopolitical factors will continue to significantly influence global capital flows. The US Dollar Index is expected to continue its weak performance, US Treasury yields are likely to maintain wide fluctuations, emerging market equities appear more attractive, and the central price level of international crude oil is expected to shift downward.
In terms of China’s economic and financial situations, the Report notes Since the third quarter of 2025, China’s economic growth momentum has moderated. External demand has exceeded expectations, while domestic demand has continued to soften amid the ongoing transition between old and new growth drivers. Preliminary estimates suggest that GDP expanded by around 4.8% in the third quarter, representing a deceleration of approximately 0.5 percentage points compared with the first half of the year. In the fourth quarter, the external environment remains fraught with uncertainties. Under the disruption of the U.S. reciprocal tariff policies, China’s export growth is expected to moderate. With the diminishing effects of earlier policy stimulus and insufficient endogenous momentum, consumption growth is likely to ease slightly. The drag from the property sector is expected to deepen further. Overall, GDP is projected to expand by around 4.5% in the fourth quarter, bringing full-year growth to approximately 5%.
In terms of global banking situations, the Report notes in 2025, the global economic recovery remained weak, and the pace of expansion in the banking industry continued to slow. However, benefiting from the rebound in capital markets and the reduction in operating costs, banks’ profitability improved to some extent. The overall risk landscape was complex, with potential deterioration in asset quality, while capital adequacy remained relatively stable. In 2025, China’s economy will maintain a sound momentum. The banking industry will anchor the goal of serving the real economy, and help the high-quality development of the real economy to accumulate momentum. The scale of the real economy will steadily increase, the profitability will be basically stable, the asset quality will be further consolidated, and the capital adequacy will be good.
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